RO
In the first half of 2026, GDP fell by 0.7% and the number of insolvencies reached its highest level in eight years. Over the same period, the number of companies financed through factoring rose by 19% and the number of financed commercial relationships by 46%
The Romanian factoring market totalled EUR 5.08 billion in the first half of 2026, according to the study conducted by Ipsos Romania on behalf of the Romanian Factoring Association, based on data reported by 13 banking and non-banking financial institutions.
The volume is 3.9% above the level recorded in the first half of 2025 (EUR 4.89 billion) and, once the depreciation of the leu against the euro is accounted for, the increase reaches 6.6%. In real terms, with annual inflation running at around 10% during the first half of the year, volumes are marginally lower — yet the market has held its level in an economy that is contracting.
This stability must be read against the backdrop of a difficult half-year for the Romanian economy. According to provisional data published by the National Institute of Statistics (INS) on 7 September, GDP declined by 0.7% in the first half of 2026 (unadjusted series), while household final consumption fell by 2.5%. Industrial output dropped by 3.7% over the first seven months, retail trade volume by 5.7%, and the number of insolvencies rose by 12.4%, to 3,855 companies and sole traders.
KEY FIGURES OF THE FACTORING MARKET
| Indicator | H1 2025 | H1 2026 | Change |
| Total volume | EUR 4.89 bn | EUR 5.08 bn | +3.9% |
| Domestic factoring | EUR 4.36 bn | EUR 4.39 bn | +0.8% |
| Export factoring | EUR 462.7 m | EUR 625.5 m | +35.2% |
| Import factoring | EUR 72.0 m | EUR 61.7 m | −14.4% |
| Average payment delay | 8.0 days | 6.9 days | vs. 6.4 days in full-year 2025 |
Adjusted for the depreciation of the leu against the euro between the two periods (reporting parity: 0.200 → 0.194 EUR/RON), total volume increases by approximately 6.6%.
The real economy and the factoring market, side by side
The macroeconomic picture is one of stagflation. GDP was flat in the second quarter compared with the first and stood 0.4% below its level a year earlier. The main engine was investment: gross fixed capital formation grew by 10.9% in the first half, supported by payments from European funds and the NRRP, while construction advanced by 8.7% in the second quarter against the first. Without this contribution, the contraction would have been significantly deeper.
Inflation began to fall rapidly, from 10.4% in June to 6.17% in August, but it remains the highest in the European Union. In August, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) revised its year-end forecast to 6.1%. The monetary policy rate has remained at 6.50%, unchanged since August 2024.
In the credit market, the dynamic is asymmetric. In July, bank lending to companies and households fell by 0.5% in real terms, with the leu-denominated component down 4.2%, while lending to the state rose by 12.6% year on year. Fiscal consolidation is progressing — the budget deficit stood at 2.34% of GDP after seven months, down from 3.99% a year earlier — but it is taking place under an interim government.
Sources: INS, NBR, ONRC, Ipsos/ARF.
1. Volumes hold. Usage deepens.
Volume indicators are affected simultaneously by inflation and by the exchange rate. Usage indicators are not.
- The number of active clients rose by 19.2%.
- The number of client–debtor relationships rose by 45.6%, more than twice as fast as the number of clients.
- The average number of debtors per client increased from 2.45 to 2.99. Compared with the full-year 2025 average (2.83), the progression continues.
- The average volume per client–debtor relationship fell by 28.5%.
The pattern is consistent: the same companies are assigning receivables across a growing number of debtors, at lower unit values. Factoring is ceasing to be an occasional solution for a handful of strategic commercial partners and is becoming an instrument applied systematically across the receivables portfolio.
For the sake of accuracy: in real terms, with annual inflation at around 10% in the first half of the year, financed volumes are marginally lower. The factoring market was not immune to the contraction of the economy; it did, however, hold its level and substantially expand its user base at a time when consumption, industry and trade were all declining.
2. Payment discipline: the average stabilises, the extremes deteriorate
The average payment delay of debtors relative to contractual terms was 6.9 days in the first half of 2026, compared with 8.0 days in the first half of 2025 — but also compared with 6.4 days for full-year 2025.
Against the annual benchmark, the average has worsened by 0.5 days. More importantly, the maximum delay reported has risen steadily: 15 days in H1 2025, 30 days in full-year 2025, and 35 days in H1 2026.
The pattern is consistent with insolvency statistics: the 3,855 proceedings opened in the first half represent, according to Coface’s analysis of ONRC data, the highest level for a first half-year in the past eight years, with increases concentrated in agriculture, professional activities and construction. Median payment behaviour remains sound; it is the tail of the distribution that lengthens with every reporting period.
For financiers, this means that debtor selection has become a more important differentiator than ever.
3. Geographic decentralisation
Bucharest-Ilfov remains the market’s principal hub, but its share of domestic factoring is steadily declining:
| H1 2025 | Full-year 2025 | H1 2026 | |
| Bucharest-Ilfov share of domestic volume | 54.6% | 53.4% | 51.5% |
The capital’s share of domestic clients fell from 31.3% to 29.9%. All eight development regions recorded increases in the number of clients, the strongest being South-West Oltenia, South-East and West.
4. Exports: factoring is growing more than ten times faster than trade
Export factoring grew by 35.2%, to EUR 625.5 million, while Romania’s goods exports advanced by only 3.0% in the first half of the year. The gap points to rising penetration of factoring in foreign trade: a growing number of exporters are financing and insuring their export receivables through this instrument. Growth is concentrated in:
- Metals, chemicals, water and recycling — EUR 343.2 million, 55% of export volume
- Vehicles, machinery and equipment — EUR 93.5 million
- Transport and warehousing — EUR 62.8 million
Regionally, exports remain dominated by South-West Oltenia (47% of volume). Import factoring declined by 14.4%.
5. By industry
In domestic factoring, the sectors with the largest volumes were FMCG (EUR 748.2 million), Vehicles and equipment (EUR 559.8 million), Forestry, wood processing and construction (EUR 503.9 million) and Metals and chemicals (EUR 502.7 million).
Compared with the first half of 2025, FMCG, construction, metals, transport and agriculture advanced, while energy, pharmaceuticals, electronics/ICT and the automotive industry declined. The performance of construction is consistent with the main segment of the economy still expanding — investment.
STATEMENTS
Bogdan Roșu, President of the Romanian Factoring Association:
“In the first half of the year, GDP fell by 0.7%, household consumption by 2.5%, industrial output by 3.7% and retail trade by 5.7%. The main engine was investment, supported by European funds. In this context, a factoring market that stays at EUR 5 billion is not reporting a performance — it is reporting resilience. Stability in a year of contraction carries a different value from stability in a year of growth. In nominal terms, the market grew by 3.9% in euro, around 6.6% adjusted for the exchange rate; in real terms, with inflation at around 10%, it declined slightly — and we prefer to say so plainly.”
“The figure that matters is not the volume, but the number of client–debtor relationships: up 46%, against 19% more clients. A client who a year ago was assigning receivables on an average of 2.45 debtors is today doing so on almost three. There is also a macroeconomic context that makes this development relevant: in July, bank lending to the state was growing by 12.6% year on year, while leu-denominated lending to companies and households was falling by 4.2% in real terms. In an economy where the system’s liquidity is being drawn towards financing the deficit, the value of factoring lies in the fact that it is funding anchored in real commercial transactions, self-liquidating on collection and transferring credit risk. Companies are now applying it across a growing share of their commercial portfolio, as a permanent treasury and risk-management instrument rather than an emergency solution.”
“The average payment delay is 6.9 days. What concerns me is the maximum reported: 15 days a year ago, 30 at the end of last year, 35 today. The average holds, the margin gives way — precisely the pattern of a half-year with the highest number of insolvencies in eight years. The main risk to the Romanian economy in 2026 is not a generalised slowdown, but polarisation: sound companies that pay on time, and a growing segment that no longer can. In this environment, the selection and assessment of commercial credit risk is worth more and more.”
“For the second half of the year, the most important variables are not financial but institutional. Disinflation is real — from 10.4% in June to 6.17% in August — and, in principle, it opens room for monetary easing. But the economy enters the final quarter with an interim government and with the 2027 budget still to be built. Companies can absorb high interest rates; what they absorb far less easily is the impossibility of planning. For the 2027 investment cycle, fiscal predictability will matter more than any basis point of the policy rate.”
OUTLOOK FOR 2026
Based on historical seasonality, ARF estimates a total volume for 2026 in the region of EUR 10.6 billion, approximately 1% above the EUR 10.5 billion recorded in 2025 — a projection of stagnation, consistent with international institutions’ estimates for the economy: the European Commission anticipates GDP growth of just 0.1% in 2026, while some commercial banks expect a contraction.
Four factors will determine the trajectory:
- Disinflation and monetary policy. The NBR forecasts inflation of 6.1% at year-end. Any monetary easing would reduce funding costs across the economy, but would also intensify competition from conventional bank lending for corporate clients.
- European funds and the NRRP. Payments from European funds and the NRRP rose by more than 60% in the first seven months, and budgeted investment by around 24%. These support construction and infrastructure supply chains — segments with substantial working capital needs.
- Political and fiscal clarity, including the adoption of the 2027 budget by a government with full powers.
- Commercial credit risk, in an environment where insolvencies are rising by more than 12% a year and the dispersion of payment delays is widening.
ARF expects the expansion of the client base to continue outpacing the growth of volumes.
METHODOLOGY
The study was conducted by Ipsos Romania on behalf of the Romanian Factoring Association, through a self-administered online questionnaire, between 22 and 31 July 2026, with banks and non-banking financial institutions as respondents. Reference period: the first half of 2026.
Conversion parities: 1 RON = 0.194 EUR (H1 2026); 1 RON = 0.200 EUR (H1 2025); 1 RON = 0.198 EUR (full-year 2025).
Macroeconomic sources: National Institute of Statistics (GDP for H1 2026 — provisional data of 7 September 2026; CPI August 2026; industrial output and retail trade January–July 2026; international trade H1 2026), National Bank of Romania (monetary policy decision of 10 August 2026; monetary indicators July 2026), Ministry of Finance (budget execution January–July 2026), National Trade Register Office and Coface Romania (insolvencies H1 2026), European Commission (2026 economic forecast).